It seemed a sure bet when Gregg Zukowski opened a pedicab rental shop in Manhattan five years ago.

With only about 60 pedicabs in all of New York City, the novelty of his tricycle alternative to midtown taxis -- which he christened Revolution Rickshaws -- allowed him to rent vehicles to a growing flock of drivers at a nifty profit.

But after a stretch of prosperity, the recession hit. With fewer tourists and other customers hailing pedicabs, the rental rates to drivers sagged. At age 36, Zukowski was in trouble.

In 2009, he said, the company’s rates dipped from $220 a week, to $180, then $160. In October, rates hit rock bottom when the company launched a promotion for $99 a week.

“We have some renters, but it's the pricing that’s killing us,” Zukowski said.

From the time that Zukowski opened his business on wheels until the recession hit late last year, conditions surrounding pedicab rentals have drastically changed.

According to Rob Tipton, owner of Mr. Rickshaw, which is two blocks down the street from Zukowski’s shop, there are about 1,000 pedicabs in the city today. Although the city is finally enforcing pedicab regulations, he said many pedicabs have long operated without safety equipment or insurance, as if it were the “Wild Wild West.”

The industry was started in the late 1990s chiefly by eco-activists who could earn money pedaling pollution-free pedicabs in downtown Manhattan. The unregulated industry subsequently grew with the influx of more drivers, and gradually moved to midtown, where most pedicabs ply their trade today.

“Nobody’s down there anymore; it was a downtown thing,” said Zukowski. “It was very idealistic, then it became a real money-making business, and all the money’s in midtown.”

Zukowski’s business tracked the rise of the industry. Revolution Rickshaws’ revenue from rentals to drivers reached $130,000 by the end of its third year in business, a swift success made possible through a fleet of 17 European-made tricycles that independent drivers used to pedal tourists around midtown for rates typically higher than a yellow taxi.

For example, a four-block crosstown ride from Grand Central to Times Square would cost a pedicab passenger about $15, as opposed to $4 by cab.

“I tell them I’ll get them there in under 15 minutes,” Zukowski said. “I always overestimate and when we reach in eight minutes, passengers are surprised. It’s our advantage.”

This tourist-reliant trade has been shrinking since the recession began.

“There were a lot more international business people who were spending freely,” Zukowski said. “There’s just not as much economic activity on the streets now.”

As a result, fewer drivers are coming to rent from Zukowski. This year, his rental revenue has fallen by 23 percent to about $100,000.

His general manager, Helen Newman, said the firm thought that it could “capitalize on the great unemployment happening right now to get people in, but we’ve not been able to do that.”

Placing advertisements on pedicabs, which was a major source of revenue for Revolution, also took a major punch, Zukowski said. It tumbled from almost $100,000 in 2008 to only $15,000 this year, somewhat like riding a tricycle with a tire 80 percent flat.

Amidst all the gloom from a shrinking driver pool and sluggish advertising, a silver lining in the cloud may come from an unlikely source: city regulation.

The Department of Consumer Affairs dictated that pedicab rental shop owners and drivers had to register with the department by Nov. 20. Part of the license application process requires inspections of the pedicabs “to ensure each meets the city’s rigorous safety requirements, including proper brakes, lights, seatbelts and insurance.”

To owners like Zukowski, this means that reckless competitors would now have to incur the same operating expenses as legitimate operators -- or face a fine.

“All this while, we’ve had those who don’t adhere to safety inspections undercutting us,” Zukowski said. “The regulation will force them to follow these standards. We’ll be on the same playing field.”

Ultimately, Zukowski will still need more passenger activity on the streets to keep his business afloat. He has been paying off interest on loans he took out to sustain his business, and if by next year he finds no respite on repayment of debt, Zukowski might just consider bidding goodbye to his livelihood.

“By next summer,” Zukowski said, “that’ll be the real sign of how the new regulatory structure is affecting the business, and I just hope it's the best for us.”